After the war, many economic experts predicted that Russia would face a crisis due to comprehensive economic sanctions. From franchises like McDonald's and Starbucks to the high-end luxury goods market, everything had pulled out of Russia. Not only were consumer goods restricted, but Russia was also excluded from the international monetary system, SWIFT, effectively halting its trade activities.
However, years after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Russia has faced multiple crises but its system has not collapsed. How? Thanks to Kazakhstan. Through Kazakhstan, high-end luxury goods continued to flow into Russia, and as a result, the lives of Russian elites remained largely unaffected. In many cases, brokers took a cut of about $2,000 — a significant amount given Kazakhstan's economic scale, but mere pocket change for wealthy Russians eager to own Rolls-Royces.
The news usually delivers only fragmented facts when reporting on sanctions. Unless it's something extreme that grabs attention, like Trump's tariff policies, little focus is given to the various indirect export routes and loopholes that emerge. On a national level, it’s rarely the case that a country collapses simply because of one policy. In nations with vast borders like Russia, there will always be those eager to find ways to continue selling goods, leading to only slightly increased distribution costs — while the real suffering falls upon the lower middle class and below.
One of the astonishing facts in the Russia-Ukraine war is that even mainstream news has reported on Ukraine's top officials traveling abroad, amassing enormous wealth, and sweeping up luxury villas and estates in safe countries. Despite hundreds of billions in international aid flowing into Ukraine, estimates suggest that only about a third of that was actually used for the war effort. So, where did the remaining hundreds of billions go?
Tracking this would be extremely difficult for journalists. Very few journalists cover international issues, and most citizens struggle just to keep up with domestic news. Following international crimes and money laundering schemes is not only costly in terms of investigative resources but also exhausting in terms of fact-checking. Such dealings occur between powerful actors, and international wire transfers often pass through multiple banks in different countries, making full tracking difficult even with Interpol’s support.
I maintain close ties with Interpol and am well aware of their system. While Interpol has a glamorous name, in reality, it lacks the investigative power and financial support that its name might suggest. Who actually runs Interpol? Which countries provide the most funding and investigative resources? Most people don't know — and likely can't know. After all, few ever have a reason to deal directly with Interpol or discuss its blind spots with insiders.
In short, even international investigative networks like Interpol or national intelligence agencies face great difficulty when an investigation crosses multiple borders. And when filing formal requests for investigation, warrants, or information inquiries, what happens? The investigators end up revealing all their cards and exposing their position while chasing the thieves.
For this reason, agile global brokers can view war as just another money-making event, and transactions in neighboring countries untouched by conflict quickly expand the market. Usually, after a few months, international journalists begin their investigations, but by the time they finish reporting, the market has already morphed into something new.
In other words, while Kazakhstan once served as a smuggling route into Russia — a channel for Russian elites to buy their toys — by the time that route is exposed and investigated, new routes and new methods have already sprung up. Even the most agile journalists are always a few months behind, and those trying to enforce the law or conduct investigations fall even further behind. To fight on equal terms, one would need the same kind of insight and power to play by their rules — but is that even possible? Whenever I contemplate Russia, I arrive at the same conclusion: all of this is merely a power struggle within the international community, and within it, people simply flow like water following the weight of profit.